Oscars 2021: Should Win/Will Win (Overview)

Here is a summary of my prediction for tonight’s Academy Awards. I have also indicated potential upsets and the chances of a surprise. You can see my explanations here: https://jaoistr.medium.com/oscars-2021-should-win-will-win-9558a5c94c3a

Best Picture

• Will Win: Nomadland
• Should Win: Minari
• Upset Unlikely: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Actress

• Will Win: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
• Should Win: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
• Upset Likely: Frances McDormand (Nomadland) or Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Best Actor

• Will Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
• Should Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
• Upset Unlikely: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)

Best Supporting Actress

• Will Win: Yuh-Jong Youn (Minari)
• Should Win: Maria Bakalova (Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm)
• Upset Possible: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)

Best Supporting Actor

• Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
• Should Win: Paul Raci (The Sound of Metal)
• Upset Unlikely: Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)

Best Director

• Will Win: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
• Should Win: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
• Upset Unlikely: David Fincher (Mank)

Best Original Screenplay

• Will Win: Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
• Should Win: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
• Upset Likely: Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Will Win: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
• Should Win: Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton (The Father)
• Upset Possible: Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton (The Father)

Best Animated Feature

• Will Win: Soul
• Should Win: Wolfwalkers
• Upset Unlikely: Wolfwalkers

Best Documentary Feature

• Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
• Should Win: Collective
• Upset Possible: Time

Best International Feature

• Will Win: Another Round (Denmark)
• Should Win: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
• Upset Unlikely: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Best Animated Short

• Will Win: “If Anything Happens, I Love You”
• Should Win: “Opera”
• Upset Possible: “Burrow” or “Genius Loci”

Best Documentary Short

• Will Win: “Love Song for Latasha”
• Should Win: “Do Not Split”
• Upset Possible: “Colette” or “A Concerto is a Conversation”

Best Live Action Short

• Will Win: “Two Distant Strangers”
• Should Win: “White Eye”
• Upset Likely: “The Letter Room”

Best Cinematography

• Will Win: Nomadland
• Should Win: Nomadland
• Upset Likely: Mank

Best Film Editing

• Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Should Win: The Father
• Upset Likely: Sound of Metal

Best Visual Effects

• Will Win: Tenet
• Should Win: Love and Monsters
• Upset Possible: Midnight Sky

Best Sound Design

• Will Win: Sound of Metal
• Should Win: Sound of Metal
• Upset Unlikely: Mank

Best Original Score

• Will Win: Soul
• Should Win: Soul
• Upset Unlikely: Mank

Best Original Song

• Will Win: “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
• Should Win: “Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest)
• Upset Possible: “Io Si” (The Life Ahead)

Best Production Design

• Will Win: Mank
• Should Win: Tenet
• Upset Possible: The Father

Best Costume Design

• Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Should Win: Emma.
• Upset Possible: Mank

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

• Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Should Win: Pinocchio
• Upset Unlikely: Hillbilly Elegy